On July 30, 2026, the National Energy Administration released the grid connection operation data for renewable energy in the first half of 2026. Data shows that as of the end of June, China's total installed renewable energy power generation capacity exceeded 1.6 billion kW, reaching 1.62 billion kW, a year-on-year increase of 25%. Among them, wind power installed capacity reached 470 GW, solar photovoltaic (PV) reached 830 GW, biomass power reached 50 GW, and hydropower (including pumped storage) reached 420 GW. In the first half of the year, 130 GW of new renewable energy capacity was added, accounting for 78% of new power generation capacity, continuing to lead global energy transition. This milestone marks that China's energy dividend period has fully shifted from the deployment stage to the harvest stage, accelerating the process of new energy becoming the main power source of the power system.
Core Features of the Energy Dividend Period: Profound Changes in Capacity Mix
The 1.6 billion kW installed capacity means that renewable energy now accounts for over 55% of the country's total installed power generation capacity, crossing the halfway mark for the first time. This ratio was only 42% in 2020, an increase of 13 percentage points over five years. More notably, the combined installed capacity of wind and solar power reached 1.3 billion kW, accounting for 80% of the total renewable energy installed capacity, making them the absolute mainstay. In the first half of the year, national renewable energy power generation reached 1.9 trillion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 18%, accounting for 33% of total power generation, an increase of 8 percentage points from 2020. Meanwhile, the share of coal power installed capacity fell below 40% for the first time, to 38.5%, marking a landmark breakthrough in the clean transformation of the power system.
The essence of the energy dividend period is the resonance of declining technology costs, sustained policy support, and improved market mechanisms. Taking solar PV as an example, module prices have fallen from 1.5 yuan/W in 2020 to the current 0.65 yuan/W, a drop of over 55%, making the levelized cost of solar PV electricity lower than 0.2 yuan/kWh in most regions, making it competitive with coal power. For wind power, onshore wind turbine prices have fallen below 1,200 yuan/kW, and the unit cost of offshore wind projects has dropped below 8,000 yuan/kW, ushering in the full era of grid parity.
Multiple Segments Advance in Tandem: Solar, Wind, and Energy Storage Flourish
Solar PV Industry Chain: From Manufacturing Giant to Installation Giant
In the first half of the year, new solar PV installed capacity reached 87 GW, a year-on-year increase of 32%, with cumulative installed capacity reaching 830 GW, fulfilling the 14th Five-Year Plan target ahead of schedule. The share of distributed PV continued to rise, reaching 58%, with over 20 GW of new household PV, becoming an important carrier of the rural energy revolution. In terms of module exports, the export volume reached 120 GW in the first half, up 15% year-on-year. Despite trade barriers, China's solar PV products still account for over 80% of the global market share due to cost advantages. Notably, the mass production efficiency of perovskite tandem cells has exceeded 30%, laying the foundation for next-generation solar technology.
Offshore Wind Accelerates: Dense Commissioning of Sea Area Wind Projects
In the first half of the year, new offshore wind installed capacity reached 5.8 GW, with cumulative capacity exceeding 50 GW, ranking first globally. The three major bases in Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Shandong contributed 70% of the new capacity. 16 MW wind turbines have been put into batch operation, and the increase in single-unit capacity has driven down unit costs. Meanwhile, deep-sea floating wind demonstration projects were commissioned in Hainan, exploring an integrated model of "offshore wind + marine ranch + hydrogen production," enhancing the comprehensive utilization value of sea areas.
Energy Storage Explosive Growth: New Energy Storage Capacity Exceeds 50 GW
The high penetration of new energy has spurred explosive demand for energy storage. In the first half of the year, new energy storage installed capacity reached 23 GW/58 GWh, with cumulative capacity reaching 52 GW/130 GWh, doubling year-on-year. Lithium-ion batteries remain dominant, but demonstration projects for flow batteries, sodium-ion batteries, and compressed air energy storage are increasing. The business model of independent energy storage stations is gradually maturing, with diversified revenue channels such as capacity leasing, frequency regulation compensation, and peak-valley arbitrage, with annualized returns on some projects exceeding 8%. At the policy level, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued "Several Measures to Promote the Development of New Energy Storage," clarifying the independent market player status of energy storage and encouraging the development of user-side energy storage.
Sustainability of the Dividend Period: Consumption and Mechanism Challenges Remain
Despite impressive data, the energy dividend period is not without concerns. In the first half of the year, the national wind curtailment rate was 3.5% and the solar curtailment rate was 2.8%, remaining within a reasonable range, but consumption pressure has increased in regions such as the Northwest and North China. Grid construction lags behind the growth rate of new energy capacity, with cross-regional transmission channel utilization at only 55%. Price volatility in the electricity spot market has intensified, with midday solar power prices appearing at zero or even negative levels, impacting project returns. To address this, the state is accelerating UHV construction and promoting the construction of power ancillary service markets and capacity markets, while encouraging new energy to be paired with energy storage, hydrogen production, and other flexible adjustment resources.
Investment Logic: From Sector-Wide Rallies to Selecting Niche Segments
At the 1.6 billion kW milestone, the investment logic of the energy dividend period is evolving. The industry is transitioning from an expansion phase to a mature phase, with investment opportunities shifting from systematic to structural. Our recommendations are as follows:
- Solar PV: Focus on excess returns from technology iteration, such as perovskite/heterojunction cells and intelligent O&M systems; be wary of price wars from overcapacity, prioritize integrated leaders.
- Wind Power: Offshore wind and deep-sea trends are clear; focus on sub-sectors such as submarine cables, pile foundations, and floating foundations, as well as turbine manufacturers with overseas capabilities.
- Energy Storage: Independent storage and commercial/industrial storage are incremental markets; focus on system integrators with technological advantages and project resources, as well as leaders in differentiated routes like sodium batteries.
- Grid Side: Infrastructure construction such as UHV, flexible DC, and digital distribution benefits from the demand for large-scale new energy transmission.
Additionally, green certificate trading and carbon market expansion will create new revenue growth points. ESG investment portfolio allocation is recommended to diversify risks.
Conclusion: Innovation-Driven is Key in the Second Half of the Energy Dividend Period
China's renewable energy installed capacity exceeding 1.6 billion kW is both a result of rapid development over the past decade and a sign that the energy dividend period has entered deep water. Over the next five years, annual new installations of wind and solar power are expected to remain above 200 GW, and new energy storage will maintain a compound growth rate of over 50%. With deep integration of digital technology, artificial intelligence, and the energy system, new business forms such as energy internet, virtual power plants, and smart energy management will unlock new dividends. Investors need to stay sharp and capture structural opportunities amidst technological iterations and policy adjustments to truly step into the golden age of the energy dividend period.
